I recently read the perfect book for a quiet actuary managing a consulting practice, and wrote a review published here by the SOA. The book is by Nancy Ancowitz, a business communication coach I have worked with over the past few years, and like all of her work it is insightful and useful. An introvert herself, Nancy has a great perspective on how we think and how we work with those chatty extroverts. Far from everyone I work with is an introvert -even the actuaries!. But since we’re half of the population some must be, and might find this useful. Take a look – and let me know what you think.
Ruark Consulting has released our major benchmark Variable Annuity Benefit Utilization Study. Please view the press release below for additional information.
Variable Annuity Benefit Utilization Study (Press Release)
The media has shown interest in the Variable Annuity Benefit Utilization Study. Noteworthy articles include:
National Underwriter
Rich Tucker was quoted in a Bloomberg News article, dated January 8, 2010, that discussed the emergence of Athene Life Re as a reinsurer focused exclusively on fixed annuities. A link to this article in Business Week follows.
Black’s Apollo Targets Fixed Annuities With Bermuda Reinsurer
The high capital requirements of traditional fixed and fixed indexed annuities must be managed carefully. Reinsurance is a major management tool. Inforce blocks of business can be reinsured to manage current capital levels. Apply reinsurance to new business to manage to your desired capital levels on an ongoing basis. Instead of restraining sales to manage capital levels, reinsurance allows you to continue to support your distribution channels by allowing them to sell the volume of new business desired and providing them with the variety of products needed. The insurance company can diversify their accumulation business among traditional fixed, indexed, and variable annuities.
Methodology
For the Variable Annuity Benefit Utilization Study that we released in December 2009, RCL used the classical Limited Fluctuation (LF) credibility method. We believe that this method is reasonable for this purpose, as it reflects both withdrawal frequency and severity and is computationally straightforward. In this context, severity measures the amount of a withdrawal in relation to a guaranteed Benefit Base.
The LF method utilizes the Central Limit Theorem, and assumes that withdrawal frequency and severity are independent, and that withdrawals are mutually independent. RCL believes that these assumptions are reasonable for this study, and that investors’ regular review of their financial plans and product performance with their financial advisor tend to mitigate the potential dependency effects of systematic withdrawal programs from year to year.
Credibility theory often utilizes the following basic formula to calculate a credibility-weighted estimate:
Estimate = Z * [Mean of current observation] + (1-Z) * [Prior mean],
where 0<=Z<=1.
Z is the credibility ascribed to the mean of the current observation. The prior mean may be based on prior observed data or some type of benchmark. The question is – how do we determine Z?
Three approaches are commonly used:
As actuaries, we are quite familiar with the rigorous use of double dots and bars in mathematical symbols and equations, and we often use software packages that facilitate their rendering in electronic documents. However, it is sometimes tempting to ignore such diacritical marks when using foreign words or names in English. This is particularly true for electronic documents — I see the tilde and circumflex on the keyboard, but how do I put it over the letter?
Of course, computer keyboard settings can be adjusted to accommodate non-English characters, and certain font settings also display as some of these characters. But as a shortcut, it is useful to know that many of these characters can be produced by simply using the ALT key and a four digit code on the number keypad in the course of your normal typing. For example, you need ALT-0252 to properly type “the Bühlmann credibility factor approaches one asymptotically”, and ALT-0244 for “Itô’s Lemma is used in the derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula”.
You can find reference materials and other codes with an internet search on “diacriticals” or “international symbols”. But be warned — those with a certain musical affinity and/or blatant disregard for the appropriate use of diacriticals may find some combinations difficult. For example, in spite of our best efforts, we have been unable to code the dotless i or umlaut n as parodied in the movie “This is Spinal Tap”, which is troubling. Then again, in the immortal words of the great David St. Hubbins, “It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever”.
Credibility Theory is a branch of actuarial science that attempts to determine the extent to which data can be trusted to inform estimates of the future. While the concept of credibility is often associated with casualty actuaries, it is relevant to virtually all fields of actuarial endeavor. The academic literature on this subject is extensive, and includes several different approaches with a range of mathematical sophistication.
Poetry is foundational to the history of RCL/RIA, so in celebration of our new website we have penned the following haiku:
behold! new website
RCL wisdom profound…
clients’ contentment
RCL has completed its fifth annual Dental PPO Network Study, analyzing the value of networks for all major carriers in the dental insurance industry. This year’s study shows that discounts in dental preferred provider networks, the most popular type of plan sold, increased in 2008 after an unusual decrease in 2007. The number of dentists participating in the average network also continues to increase, although no longer at the extremely fast rate seen last year.
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